Remember- He gives analysis on one game which is not a play (KC/Jax) and then caps the two night games.
WEEK SIX BEST BETS
YTD 23-15 +19.40%
4% TAMPA BAY +6.5
<HR color=#c0c0c0 SIZE=1>Kansas City –2 JACKSONVILLE 44
1-2-0/1-2-0 18.7-23.7
Jacksonville is starting to come back to earth after their 3-0 start. They won all three of those games in close fashion and all three could have gone either way. Last week, they were down 0-21 before they knew what hit them. It doesn’t get any easier this week against a Kansas City team hungry for a win and coming off an upset win over Baltimore and a bye. The KC offense has been below average for what they expect so far this season, gaining just 4.7ypr against 4.1ypr, 5.5yps against 5.9yps and 5.1yppl against 5.0yppl. They hope to get their passing attack under way this week with the return of Eddie Kennison to the lineup. But, it won’t be easy against a Jacksonville defense, which is still pretty good, despite getting lit up last week for 6.2yppl against SD. Jacksonville is allowing just 3.9ypr against 4.3ypr, 6.3yps against 6.4yps and 5.0yppl against 5.4yppl. Jacksonville was able to hold a solid Colts offense (averaging 6.2yppl) to just 5.6yppl so they should be able to contain a KC offense here. For Jacksonville, their offense has not been good, gaining just 3.8ypr against 4.0ypr, 5.5yps against 5.9yps and 5.0yppl against 5.5yppl. While KC is allowing 28 points per game against teams averaging just 20 points per game, much of that is because of turnovers and poor field position. KC is actually allowing just 5.5yppl against 5.3yppl, so while they are below average defensively, it is not as bad as some might make it out to be. Jacksonville qualifies in my turnover table system, which is 1279-1063-65 and a subset, which is 793-613-36. Final numbers favor Jacksonville by nine points and a pick ‘em. Final total suggests about 40 points being scored and this game actually qualifies in two different under situations, which are 322-240-12 and 149-78-2. This game certainly stands a good chance of going under but I have a hard time going under in KC games unless I am getting a lot of points. I’ll lean with the home dog and the under. JACKSONVILLE 23 KANSAS CITY 17
Minnesota –3 NEW ORLEANS 51.5
1-1-0/1-1-0 23.5-29.5
Certainly expected to have a play on NO when this line came out this week. However, after going through all of my systems, I have no plays favoring either team here. As much as I hate to lean with a poor defense like the Vikings, laying points on the road, that is my only choice in this game. I just don’t see a very poor NO defense, which is allowing 4.6ypr against 4.1ypr, 6.9yps against 5.9yps and 5.8yppl against 5.2yppl overall stopping the explosive Vikings offense. The Minnesota offense is averaging 4.4ypr against 4.6ypr, 8.2yps against 6.2yps and 6.8yppl against 5.5yppl. That doesn’t bode well for NO. The NO offense is averaging 3.9ypr against 4.3ypr, 6.1yps against 5.9yps and 5.2yppl against 5.2yppl and their average offense will face a below average Vikings defense, which is allowing 4.3ypr against 4.1ypr, 7.1yps against 6.9yps and 6.2yppl against 5.8yppl. Final numbers favor Minnesota by nine points and two points. Final total suggests about 54 points being scored but I have two solid situations that play on the under in this game, which are 322-240-12 and 149-78-2. I can’t play under with two poor defenses and two average to above average offenses but the situations will get me leaning towards the under with this high total. I am a slave to the situations and greatly respect them too much to go against them. MINNESOTA 30 NEW ORLEANS 20
ST LOUIS –6.5 Tampa Bay 42.5
2-0-0/0-2-0 15-14
We saved the best for last with this game. Tampa Bay will be my first 4% play of the year. Keep it simple and use discipline and play it as it is, just a 4% play, which is only 1% more than the normal play. I went against NO last week with a play on Tampa Bay because an average offense can beat a below average defense and an above average defense can stop a good offense enough to win the game. Not a lot changes here this week. We get a defense, which is actually worse than NO but an offense, which is actually better than NO. As I said last week, the Tampa Bay offense isn’t that bad. For the year, they are about average, but have faced some good defenses, which have kept their numbers down. They are averaging 3.6ypr against 3.8ypr, 5.7yps against 6.0yps and 4.9yppl against 5.0yppl. They averaged 7.7yps last week and 5.6yppl last week against a poor NO defense. This week they will face an equally, and actually even worse Rams defense, which is allowing 5.2ypr against 4.1ypr, 6.2yps against 5.8yps and 5.8yppl against 5.0yppl. That means TB should average closer to around 6.0yppl in this game. Those are pretty good numbers for a team getting 6.5 points. Going the other way, they will face a better offense this week, which averages 4.9ypr against 4.0ypr, 7.0yps against 6.2yps and 6.2yppl against 5.2yppl. But the terrific Rams offense will face a solid TB defense, allowing just 4.1ypr against 4.0ypr, 5.2yps against 6.0yps and 4.6yppl against 5.1yppl. That means, based on those numbers, the Rams will probably average closer to 5.8yppl in this game. Being at home, the Rams will probably average a little better than that, and being on the road, TB will probably average a little worse than the 6.0yppl. But, the numbers will still be close enough for a line this high to favor the dog. The Rams, after their last two wins, qualify in a letdown situation, which is my best situation. That situation is 93-24-2 and plays against the Rams here. That’s nearly 80% winners on 117 plays. That same situation played against Baltimore when they played Kansas City two Monday nights ago. KC controlled that game from start to finish and I expect more of the same here. The Rams won last week to go one game over .500 but that only sets them up in a situation that suggests they are due to let up after finally getting over .500. That situation playing against the Rams is now 54-26-1. TB also qualifies in a contrary situation, which plays on teams getting a handful of points, which is 125-57-5 and the fact TB allowed NO to rush for 5.0ypr last week sets them up in a defensive bounce back situation, which is 165-97-9. Before the situations are accounted for, my final numbers favor the Rams by eight and 7.5 points. After accounting for the situations, this game is closer to TB by one point. Final numbers also suggest about 41 points being scored. I don’t have a great feeling on the total but I do have two situations, which play the under in this game, which are 322-240-1 and 149-78-2. TB covered here in 1999 in the NFL Championship game, losing 6-11 as 14.5 point dogs, covered at home against the Rams in 2000 as two point dogs, 38-35, covered here on a Monday night in 2001 as 10 point dogs, winning the game straight up, 24-17, and won at home in 2002 on a Monday night, as three point dogs, 26-14. They win again. TAMPA BAY 21 ST LOUIS 20
WEEK SIX BEST BETS
YTD 23-15 +19.40%
4% TAMPA BAY +6.5
<HR color=#c0c0c0 SIZE=1>Kansas City –2 JACKSONVILLE 44
1-2-0/1-2-0 18.7-23.7
Jacksonville is starting to come back to earth after their 3-0 start. They won all three of those games in close fashion and all three could have gone either way. Last week, they were down 0-21 before they knew what hit them. It doesn’t get any easier this week against a Kansas City team hungry for a win and coming off an upset win over Baltimore and a bye. The KC offense has been below average for what they expect so far this season, gaining just 4.7ypr against 4.1ypr, 5.5yps against 5.9yps and 5.1yppl against 5.0yppl. They hope to get their passing attack under way this week with the return of Eddie Kennison to the lineup. But, it won’t be easy against a Jacksonville defense, which is still pretty good, despite getting lit up last week for 6.2yppl against SD. Jacksonville is allowing just 3.9ypr against 4.3ypr, 6.3yps against 6.4yps and 5.0yppl against 5.4yppl. Jacksonville was able to hold a solid Colts offense (averaging 6.2yppl) to just 5.6yppl so they should be able to contain a KC offense here. For Jacksonville, their offense has not been good, gaining just 3.8ypr against 4.0ypr, 5.5yps against 5.9yps and 5.0yppl against 5.5yppl. While KC is allowing 28 points per game against teams averaging just 20 points per game, much of that is because of turnovers and poor field position. KC is actually allowing just 5.5yppl against 5.3yppl, so while they are below average defensively, it is not as bad as some might make it out to be. Jacksonville qualifies in my turnover table system, which is 1279-1063-65 and a subset, which is 793-613-36. Final numbers favor Jacksonville by nine points and a pick ‘em. Final total suggests about 40 points being scored and this game actually qualifies in two different under situations, which are 322-240-12 and 149-78-2. This game certainly stands a good chance of going under but I have a hard time going under in KC games unless I am getting a lot of points. I’ll lean with the home dog and the under. JACKSONVILLE 23 KANSAS CITY 17
Minnesota –3 NEW ORLEANS 51.5
1-1-0/1-1-0 23.5-29.5
Certainly expected to have a play on NO when this line came out this week. However, after going through all of my systems, I have no plays favoring either team here. As much as I hate to lean with a poor defense like the Vikings, laying points on the road, that is my only choice in this game. I just don’t see a very poor NO defense, which is allowing 4.6ypr against 4.1ypr, 6.9yps against 5.9yps and 5.8yppl against 5.2yppl overall stopping the explosive Vikings offense. The Minnesota offense is averaging 4.4ypr against 4.6ypr, 8.2yps against 6.2yps and 6.8yppl against 5.5yppl. That doesn’t bode well for NO. The NO offense is averaging 3.9ypr against 4.3ypr, 6.1yps against 5.9yps and 5.2yppl against 5.2yppl and their average offense will face a below average Vikings defense, which is allowing 4.3ypr against 4.1ypr, 7.1yps against 6.9yps and 6.2yppl against 5.8yppl. Final numbers favor Minnesota by nine points and two points. Final total suggests about 54 points being scored but I have two solid situations that play on the under in this game, which are 322-240-12 and 149-78-2. I can’t play under with two poor defenses and two average to above average offenses but the situations will get me leaning towards the under with this high total. I am a slave to the situations and greatly respect them too much to go against them. MINNESOTA 30 NEW ORLEANS 20
ST LOUIS –6.5 Tampa Bay 42.5
2-0-0/0-2-0 15-14
We saved the best for last with this game. Tampa Bay will be my first 4% play of the year. Keep it simple and use discipline and play it as it is, just a 4% play, which is only 1% more than the normal play. I went against NO last week with a play on Tampa Bay because an average offense can beat a below average defense and an above average defense can stop a good offense enough to win the game. Not a lot changes here this week. We get a defense, which is actually worse than NO but an offense, which is actually better than NO. As I said last week, the Tampa Bay offense isn’t that bad. For the year, they are about average, but have faced some good defenses, which have kept their numbers down. They are averaging 3.6ypr against 3.8ypr, 5.7yps against 6.0yps and 4.9yppl against 5.0yppl. They averaged 7.7yps last week and 5.6yppl last week against a poor NO defense. This week they will face an equally, and actually even worse Rams defense, which is allowing 5.2ypr against 4.1ypr, 6.2yps against 5.8yps and 5.8yppl against 5.0yppl. That means TB should average closer to around 6.0yppl in this game. Those are pretty good numbers for a team getting 6.5 points. Going the other way, they will face a better offense this week, which averages 4.9ypr against 4.0ypr, 7.0yps against 6.2yps and 6.2yppl against 5.2yppl. But the terrific Rams offense will face a solid TB defense, allowing just 4.1ypr against 4.0ypr, 5.2yps against 6.0yps and 4.6yppl against 5.1yppl. That means, based on those numbers, the Rams will probably average closer to 5.8yppl in this game. Being at home, the Rams will probably average a little better than that, and being on the road, TB will probably average a little worse than the 6.0yppl. But, the numbers will still be close enough for a line this high to favor the dog. The Rams, after their last two wins, qualify in a letdown situation, which is my best situation. That situation is 93-24-2 and plays against the Rams here. That’s nearly 80% winners on 117 plays. That same situation played against Baltimore when they played Kansas City two Monday nights ago. KC controlled that game from start to finish and I expect more of the same here. The Rams won last week to go one game over .500 but that only sets them up in a situation that suggests they are due to let up after finally getting over .500. That situation playing against the Rams is now 54-26-1. TB also qualifies in a contrary situation, which plays on teams getting a handful of points, which is 125-57-5 and the fact TB allowed NO to rush for 5.0ypr last week sets them up in a defensive bounce back situation, which is 165-97-9. Before the situations are accounted for, my final numbers favor the Rams by eight and 7.5 points. After accounting for the situations, this game is closer to TB by one point. Final numbers also suggest about 41 points being scored. I don’t have a great feeling on the total but I do have two situations, which play the under in this game, which are 322-240-1 and 149-78-2. TB covered here in 1999 in the NFL Championship game, losing 6-11 as 14.5 point dogs, covered at home against the Rams in 2000 as two point dogs, 38-35, covered here on a Monday night in 2001 as 10 point dogs, winning the game straight up, 24-17, and won at home in 2002 on a Monday night, as three point dogs, 26-14. They win again. TAMPA BAY 21 ST LOUIS 20
